{"id":202932,"date":"2020-08-31T00:30:28","date_gmt":"2020-08-30T23:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/es\/?p=202932"},"modified":"2020-08-27T00:41:44","modified_gmt":"2020-08-26T23:41:44","slug":"incertidumbre-economica-la-peor-amenaza-del-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/08\/31\/incertidumbre-economica-la-peor-amenaza-del-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica, la peor amenaza del Covid"},"content":{"rendered":"

Con casi 24 millones de enfermos, y m\u00e1s de 800 mil fallecidos, el mundo ya no volver\u00e1 a ser como era y, en verdad, no debiera. Y lo cierto es que la amenaza para el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico estar\u00e1 latente mientras el coronavirus siga vivo.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"Ivette Fern\u00e1ndez<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ante su duraci\u00f3n y la imposibilidad de erradicar el virus completamente en corto plazo, en el escenario econ\u00f3mico, acostumbrado a los vaticinios para futuros planeamientos, la incertidumbre es la peor de todas las amenazas.<\/p>\n

Si bien en un principio las afectaciones parec\u00edan limitadas a unas pocas semanas al estar ce\u00f1idas a la paralizaci\u00f3n de varias industrias chinas, luego, ante el avance indetenible de la enfermedad, gan\u00f3 fuerza la teor\u00eda de que a partir de la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o la recuperaci\u00f3n acontecer\u00eda de manera acelerada.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1s tarde, cuando la epidemia gan\u00f3 fuerza inusitada en Europa, diferentes entidades dedicadas al an\u00e1lisis de la econom\u00eda comenzaron a crear modelos basados en dis\u00edmiles y probables escenarios.<\/p>\n

Hoy se advierte unos efectos tan duraderos que Latinoam\u00e9rica, por ejemplo, demorar\u00eda varios a\u00f1os en sobreponerse a los estragos de la crisis sanitaria.<\/p>\n

Ya el Banco Mundial anunci\u00f3 que esta ser\u00e1 la peor recesi\u00f3n desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial (1939-1945), y la primera vez desde 1870 en que tantas econom\u00edas experimentar\u00edan una disminuci\u00f3n del producto per c\u00e1pita, pues se espera una ca\u00edda econ\u00f3mica del 5,3 por ciento en el orbe.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

De acuerdo con la consultor\u00eda McKinsey Global Institute, los efectos del coronavirus costar\u00edan hasta 30 billones (un mill\u00f3n de millones) de d\u00f3lares a la econom\u00eda, el doble de lo que, seg\u00fan la propia entidad, acarrear\u00eda una supuesta guerra mundial.<\/p>\n

Adem\u00e1s, \u00a0triplica el costo de la crisis financiera de la d\u00e9cada del 30 del pasado siglo en Estados Unidos conocida como la Gran Depresi\u00f3n, estimada en 10 billones de d\u00f3lares, y es 30 veces superior a las consecuencias de un ciberataque a gran escala. Por su parte, el fondo de inversi\u00f3n de Europa BNP alert\u00f3 que el mundo est\u00e1 amenazado por la ‘madre de todas las recesiones’ a causa de los da\u00f1os acarreados por el virus.<\/p>\n

No fue una buena noticia a inicios de a\u00f1o la interrupci\u00f3n de las manufacturas chinas.<\/p>\n

Ahora tampoco lo es el descalabro sufrido en Estados Unidos, con un retroceso del 33% durante el segundo trimestre, si tomamos en cuenta su peso para el resto de las naciones.<\/p>\n

Las econom\u00edas emergentes tampoco lo tendr\u00e1n f\u00e1cil.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Los llamados pa\u00edses Brics, con excepci\u00f3n de China, son los m\u00e1s afectados por la enfermedad: Brasil, Rusia, India y Sud\u00e1frica.<\/p>\n

Ante este panorama, los economistas ya abandonaron la tesis de una recuperaci\u00f3n en forma de V, para dar cabida a hip\u00f3tesis de un rebote en forma de U \u00f3 W ser\u00eda m\u00e1s probable.<\/p>\n

La V es el modelo producido cuando hay un par\u00f3n brusco de la econom\u00eda pero la vuelta a la normalidad tambi\u00e9n es r\u00e1pida.<\/p>\n

La U est\u00e1 presente si los indicadores tardan m\u00e1s tiempo en llegar a los niveles previos a la recesi\u00f3n, mientras que la W significa cuando entras y sales de la crisis, pero el repunte no se sostiene y vuelves a caer en terreno negativo.<\/p>\n

Otros expertos aluden a la L para definir aquella contracci\u00f3n que se produce de forma pronunciada y cuya recuperaci\u00f3n es muy lenta, o sea, una ca\u00edda abrupta acompa\u00f1ada de un estancamiento prolongado.<\/p>\n

Para Robert Gilhool, funcionario de Aberdeen Standard Investments, una de las sociedades de inversi\u00f3n m\u00e1s grandes del mundo, no ser\u00e1 hasta finales de 2022 que el Producto Interno Bruto mundial recupere los niveles anteriores al coronavirus.<\/p>\n

\"\"A su juicio, la econom\u00eda global experimentar\u00e1 una curva en forma de U y evitar\u00e1 la recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica.<\/p>\n

La Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial del Comercio, por su parte, estima que la solidez de la recuperaci\u00f3n del intercambio mundial sigue siendo muy incierta y no se puede descartar una evoluci\u00f3n en forma de L, en lugar de V.<\/p>\n

Esto, tras divulgar que el comercio global de bienes puede haber registrado una disminuci\u00f3n en torno al 18% durante el segundo trimestre en relaci\u00f3n con id\u00e9ntico lapso del a\u00f1o pasado, o sea, una ca\u00edda hist\u00f3rica. La OMC ha dicho que los productos de automoci\u00f3n y de transporte a\u00e9reo son los m\u00e1s perjudicados. (PL)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

(Fotos: Pixabay)<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t\t\tTweet<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Con casi 24 millones de enfermos, y m\u00e1s de 800 mil fallecidos, el mundo ya no volver\u00e1 a ser como era y, en verdad, no debiera. Y lo cierto es que la amenaza para el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico estar\u00e1 latente mientras el coronavirus siga vivo.   Ivette Fern\u00e1ndez   Ante su […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":202956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,11,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-202932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-globo","category-mundo","category-reino-unido"],"yoast_head":"\nIncertidumbre econ\u00f3mica, la peor amenaza del Covid - ThePrisma.co.uk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/08\/31\/incertidumbre-economica-la-peor-amenaza-del-covid\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica, la peor amenaza del Covid - ThePrisma.co.uk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Con casi 24 millones de enfermos, y m\u00e1s de 800 mil fallecidos, el mundo ya no volver\u00e1 a ser como era y, en verdad, no debiera. 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