{"id":203553,"date":"2020-09-14T00:23:43","date_gmt":"2020-09-13T23:23:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/es\/?p=203553"},"modified":"2020-09-14T05:12:20","modified_gmt":"2020-09-14T04:12:20","slug":"por-que-es-dificil-predecir-el-futuro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/09\/14\/por-que-es-dificil-predecir-el-futuro\/","title":{"rendered":"Por qu\u00e9 es dif\u00edcil predecir el futuro"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>El a\u00f1o pasado escrib\u00ed una columna sobre China aqu\u00ed; o, m\u00e1s bien, us\u00e9 a China como caso pr\u00e1ctico para examinar c\u00f3mo podemos, o no, prever el futuro.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-203558\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Why-it\u2019s-negocios-exito-Pixabay-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"416\" height=\"277\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/es\/2020\/09\/07\/se-acerca-el-invierno-covid\/\">Steve Latham<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>No afirmo tener ning\u00fan conocimiento particular sobre la pol\u00edtica china. Todas las cuestiones planteadas eran de dominio p\u00fablico, estaban en los medios de comunicaci\u00f3n habituales.<\/p>\n<p>Lo que quer\u00eda hacer en ese momento era demostrar lo poco que podemos predecir y, por lo tanto, planificar en lo que a las pr\u00f3ximas tendencias se refiere.<\/p>\n<p>Desde entonces, como sabemos, ha habido algunos acontecimientos incre\u00edbles a nivel mundial. En el caso de China, algunos son el resultado directo de las decisiones de su gobierno, pero otros no los pod\u00edamos pronosticar.<\/p>\n<p>Por ejemplo, ha surgido una guerra comercial entre China y Estados Unidos y tambi\u00e9n entre sus aliados. Empresas como Huawei y Tiktok est\u00e1n prohibidas por los gobiernos occidentales, lo que provoca una posible nueva Guerra Fr\u00eda.<\/p>\n<p>Por supuesto, gran parte de la tensi\u00f3n se debe a las pol\u00edticas inestables del gobierno estadounidense bajo el mandato de Donald Trump y a su deseo de compensar la falta de popularidad en su terreno con una postura agresiva en el extranjero.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-203559 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Why-it\u2019s-magia-suerte-tarot-adivina-premonici-Pixabay-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"413\" height=\"275\" \/>Pero la propia b\u00fasqueda de protagonismo por parte de China tambi\u00e9n cuenta. Los puntos conflictivos son claros. Por ejemplo, los recientes enfrentamientos con India en los territorios fronterizos en disputa podr\u00edan provocar nuevos conflictos militares.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, las ambiciones de China en el Mar del Sur de China, aun con la construcci\u00f3n de islas artificiales para poner en juego sus reivindicaciones territoriales, han preocupado a las naciones vecinas: Taiw\u00e1n, Vietnam y Filipinas.<\/p>\n<p>China est\u00e1 extendiendo su hegemon\u00eda internacional a trav\u00e9s de acuerdos comerciales en su iniciativa de la Nueva Ruta de la Seda, vinculando pa\u00edses pobres a su esfera de influencia a trav\u00e9s de la dependencia econ\u00f3mica.<\/p>\n<p>En el \u00e1mbito pol\u00edtico de China, la naturaleza totalitaria del r\u00e9gimen se ha fortalecido, especialmente desde que Xi Jinping se declar\u00f3 presidente de por vida el a\u00f1o pasado.<\/p>\n<p>Esto se agrava con las nuevas leyes represivas que afectan a Hong Kong y los posteriores arrestos de activistas y periodistas defensores de la democracia.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-203557\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Why-it\u2019s-china-town-ciudad-noche-luces-Pixabay-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"410\" height=\"273\" \/>Esto recuerda los intentos de la URSS por acabar con las discrepancias internas e impedir el desarrollo del pensamiento independiente.<\/p>\n<p>La religi\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n sigue siendo pol\u00e9mica. Los cristianos se han visto obligados a reemplazar las im\u00e1genes de Jes\u00fas por im\u00e1genes de Mao Zedong y Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n<p>Pero lo m\u00e1s peligroso es la continua represi\u00f3n en Xinjiang, donde se impide que la poblaci\u00f3n musulmana uigur siga su religi\u00f3n, aparentemente para combatir el terrorismo isl\u00e1mico.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, las pol\u00edticas antirreligiosas y la red de los denominados campos de reeducaci\u00f3n pueden provocar una mayor radicalizaci\u00f3n entre la poblaci\u00f3n, pudiendo convertir a Xinjiang en el Afganist\u00e1n de China.<\/p>\n<p>Por supuesto, lo m\u00e1s destacado es la pandemia de Covid-19. Sin duda, Trump ha tratado de convertir la cuesti\u00f3n en un arma culpando a China, para mejorar sus posibilidades de reelecci\u00f3n. Pero hay cuestiones genuinas en juego.<\/p>\n<p>La preocupaci\u00f3n de China por el secretismo y la estabilidad llev\u00f3 aparentemente a la censura y a retrasar la informaci\u00f3n al resto del mundo.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-203556 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Why-it\u2019s-tik-tok-maquina-red-social-Pixabay-1-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"412\" height=\"274\" \/>Pero sea de quien sea la culpa, el coronavirus ha cambiado las actitudes mundiales hacia China. Junto con todos los dem\u00e1s factores, esto demuestra una vez m\u00e1s la enorme imprevisibilidad de los asuntos mundiales.<\/p>\n<p>El siglo XX fue testigo, especialmente en Occidente, de la vanidad de los intentos humanos por proteger a las poblaciones acomodadas de los caprichos de la vida, creando una prosperidad y seguridad fiables.<\/p>\n<p>Esas eran las ilusiones de la \u00e9poca. Nuestra soberbia tiene como resultado una n\u00e9mesis inevitable.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"irisbg7@gmail.com\">(Traducido por Iris Mar\u00eda Gab\u00e1s Blanco \u2013 Email: irisbg7@gmail.com)<\/a> \u2013 <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/pixabay.com\"><em>Fotos: Pixabay<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"twttr_buttons\"><div class=\"twttr_twitter\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=Por+qu%C3%A9+es+dif%C3%ADcil+predecir+el+futuro\" class=\"twitter-share-button\" data-via=\"\" data-hashtags=\"\"  data-size=\"default\" data-url=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/09\/14\/por-que-es-dificil-predecir-el-futuro\/\" data-dnt=\"true\" data-related=\"\" target=\"_blank\">Tweet<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El a\u00f1o pasado escrib\u00ed una columna sobre China aqu\u00ed; o, m\u00e1s bien, us\u00e9 a China como caso pr\u00e1ctico para examinar c\u00f3mo podemos, o no, prever el futuro. &nbsp; Steve Latham &nbsp; No afirmo tener ning\u00fan conocimiento particular sobre la pol\u00edtica china. Todas las cuestiones planteadas eran de dominio p\u00fablico, estaban [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":203559,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,11801,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-203553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-en-foco","category-notes-from-the-edge","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Por qu\u00e9 es dif\u00edcil predecir el futuro - ThePrisma.co.uk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/09\/14\/por-que-es-dificil-predecir-el-futuro\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Por qu\u00e9 es dif\u00edcil predecir el futuro - ThePrisma.co.uk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El a\u00f1o pasado escrib\u00ed una columna sobre China aqu\u00ed; o, m\u00e1s bien, us\u00e9 a China como caso pr\u00e1ctico para examinar c\u00f3mo podemos, o no, prever el futuro. &nbsp; Steve Latham &nbsp; No afirmo tener ning\u00fan conocimiento particular sobre la pol\u00edtica china. 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