{"id":204897,"date":"2020-11-02T00:22:51","date_gmt":"2020-11-01T23:22:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/es\/?p=204897"},"modified":"2020-11-15T18:39:37","modified_gmt":"2020-11-15T17:39:37","slug":"trump-o-biden-un-triunfo-aun-incierto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/11\/02\/trump-o-biden-un-triunfo-aun-incierto\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump o Biden, un triunfo a\u00fan incierto"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Esta semana Estados Unidos decide su futuro. Trump y Biden juegan un juego dif\u00edcil en el que pareciera que el actual presidente del pa\u00eds, no tuviera los sondeos a su favor. Pero no se descartan las sorpresas.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-204960\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Trump-o-estatua-de-la-libertad-estados-unidos-fuego-ince-usa-Pixabay.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"460\" height=\"306\" srcset=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Trump-o-estatua-de-la-libertad-estados-unidos-fuego-ince-usa-Pixabay.jpg 672w, https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Trump-o-estatua-de-la-libertad-estados-unidos-fuego-ince-usa-Pixabay-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Trump-o-estatua-de-la-libertad-estados-unidos-fuego-ince-usa-Pixabay-83x55.jpg 83w, https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/Trump-o-estatua-de-la-libertad-estados-unidos-fuego-ince-usa-Pixabay-650x433.jpg 650w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 460px) 100vw, 460px\" \/>Seg\u00fan la web de estad\u00edsticas FiveThirtyEight, el mandatario tiene apenas un 13% de posibilidades de ganar los comicios presidenciales, o sea, menos que las que hay de sacar un seis cuando se tira un dado.<\/p>\n<p>Asimismo, el semanario brit\u00e1nico The Economist reduce las probabilidades de Trump a renovar mandato al 5%.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, el 8 de noviembre de 2016 -el d\u00eda de los anteriores sufragios- The New York Times dio al magnate republicano un 15% de posibilidades de ganar.<\/p>\n<p>FiveThirtyEight, un poco m\u00e1s prudente, redujo la proporci\u00f3n al 28,8; The Economist no quer\u00eda emociones fuertes, y no entr\u00f3, aquel a\u00f1o, en el juego.<\/p>\n<p>Para el analista Pablo Pardo, las preguntas son evidentes: \u00bfva a pasar lo mismo en 2020? \u00bfcaptan las encuestas la intenci\u00f3n de voto? Pardo destaca que en las elecciones al Congreso de 2018, en las que el Partido Dem\u00f3crata arras\u00f3, acertaron totalmente.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-200041 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/EEUU-crimen-Donald-Trump-Pixabay-2-e1603521284903.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"458\" height=\"305\" \/>Pero Trump es imprevisible. As\u00ed que en este 2020 nadie se f\u00eda. Y, menos que nadie, los dem\u00f3cratas.<\/p>\n<p>En un reciente documento a su equipo, la directora de la campa\u00f1a de Joe Biden, Jennifer O&#8217;Malley Dillon, ped\u00eda hacer campa\u00f1a \u201ccomo si fu\u00e9ramos perdiendo\u201d, porque \u201cla mejor encuesta puede equivocarse\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>No se trata solo del precedente de 2016 sino, tambi\u00e9n, de los datos de 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Por ejemplo: es cierto que Biden lleva el doble de ventaja respecto a Clinton a nivel nacional, es decir, alrededor de nueve puntos frente a 4,5. Pero lo importante son los estados que pueden dar la victoria. Y, cuando se tiene en cuenta esos territorios -Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Carolina del Norte y Arizona- Biden lleva 3,9 puntos de ventaja de media a Trump, seg\u00fan la media de la web RealClearPolitics.<\/p>\n<p>El problema para el candidato dem\u00f3crata es que Clinton ganaba por 3,5 puntos a estas alturas de las elecciones. Y perdi\u00f3 en todos y cada uno de esos estados.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_203939\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-203939\" style=\"width: 455px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-203939\" src=\"https:\/\/tucuentavip.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/EEUU-debe-Joe-Biden-Photo-by-Gage-Siudmore-Creative-Commons.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"455\" height=\"304\" srcset=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/EEUU-debe-Joe-Biden-Photo-by-Gage-Siudmore-Creative-Commons.jpg 799w, https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/EEUU-debe-Joe-Biden-Photo-by-Gage-Siudmore-Creative-Commons-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/EEUU-debe-Joe-Biden-Photo-by-Gage-Siudmore-Creative-Commons-82x55.jpg 82w, https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/EEUU-debe-Joe-Biden-Photo-by-Gage-Siudmore-Creative-Commons-650x434.jpg 650w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 455px) 100vw, 455px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-203939\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Joe Biden. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/gageskidmore\/49405107506\/in\/photolist-2igL6do-2igHBp3-2igHB4d-2ieZXUG-2if4nBQ-2if3muq-2ieZWHo-2if3kK9-2if4mfr-2ieZVLt-2if3jvL-2if4jjY-2if4iXW-2ieZTmo-2ieZSQ3-2ieZSFk-2if4uzN-2if4udv-2if1533-2if3t3F-2if14oN-2if4sWs-2if3s1R-2if13py-2if12ZA-2if12uC-2if3qdH-2if11qd-2itrizz-2itnzLb-2itnzxW-2itrid7-2itri8C-2itri2F-2itq7CA-2itq7xF-2itq7sq-2itrhj3-2itrhei-2itnyow-2itnyjZ-2itrh12-2itrgWj-2itq6Fa-2itq6BN-2itq6wx-2itq6rH-2itnxFE-2itnwWo-2if4jXX\">Foto de Gage Skidmore<\/a>. Licenciae Creative Commons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Las empresas de estudios demosc\u00f3picos crearon la narrativa de que no se equivocaron en 2016, sino que, simplemente, estados que no se ten\u00edan como dudosos, se dieron la vuelta inesperadamente y fueron a favor de Trump.<\/p>\n<p>Para Pardo esa idea es incierta puesto que esas empresas deber\u00edan haber detectado que Michigan, Pennsylvania y Wisconsin pod\u00edan estar en disputa, y no lo hicieron.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, cuando sondearon la intenci\u00f3n de voto en esos se equivocaron totalmente, resalta el comentarista.<\/p>\n<p>En Wisconsin, todas y cada una de las 28 encuestas dieron a Clinton como ganadora. En Michigan, solo uno de los 37 sondeos de opini\u00f3n puso a Donald Trump por delante, aunque en ambos, gan\u00f3 el actual presidente.<\/p>\n<p>En el Reino Unido, Biden tiene el 64,6% de probabilidades, y Trump el 35,4%.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, es mejor mirar las encuestas con un poco de escepticismo. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prensa-latina.cu\/\">(PL)<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pixabay.com\"><em>(Fotos: Pixabay)<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"twttr_buttons\"><div class=\"twttr_twitter\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/share?text=Trump+o+Biden%2C+un+triunfo+a%C3%BAn+incierto\" class=\"twitter-share-button\" data-via=\"\" data-hashtags=\"\"  data-size=\"default\" data-url=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/11\/02\/trump-o-biden-un-triunfo-aun-incierto\/\" data-dnt=\"true\" data-related=\"\" target=\"_blank\">Tweet<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esta semana Estados Unidos decide su futuro. Trump y Biden juegan un juego dif\u00edcil en el que pareciera que el actual presidente del pa\u00eds, no tuviera los sondeos a su favor. Pero no se descartan las sorpresas. &nbsp; Seg\u00fan la web de estad\u00edsticas FiveThirtyEight, el mandatario tiene apenas un 13% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":204960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,10,11,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-204897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-en-foco","category-globo","category-mundo","category-opinion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump o Biden, un triunfo a\u00fan incierto - ThePrisma.co.uk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theprisma.co.uk\/es\/2020\/11\/02\/trump-o-biden-un-triunfo-aun-incierto\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump o Biden, un triunfo a\u00fan incierto - ThePrisma.co.uk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Esta semana Estados Unidos decide su futuro. Trump y Biden juegan un juego dif\u00edcil en el que pareciera que el actual presidente del pa\u00eds, no tuviera los sondeos a su favor. 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Trump y Biden juegan un juego dif\u00edcil en el que pareciera que el actual presidente del pa\u00eds, no tuviera los sondeos a su favor. 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