Although there are still pending candidacies, such as that of the Revolución Ciudadana (The Citizens’ Revolution) (RC) movement, the strategy of this collective is to try to win the Presidency of the Republic of Ecuador on 20 August, i.e. without the need to measure forces in a second round.
The organisation, led by former president Rafael Correa, has recently demonstrated popular support in the provincial and municipal elections held on 5 February, where its cadres won the country’s most important prefectures and mayors’ offices.
In this context, many question whether this support will be enough to win and reach the required percentage in the first round.
Even when it was not known who would represent the CR, analysts assured that it is the political force with the best chances at the national level.
Now that González and his running mate Andrés Arauz have registered, the forecasts do not vary much, although they warn that it will be difficult to win in the first round.
This requires a candidate to obtain more than 50 per cent of the vote or at least 40 per cent and 10 points ahead of the runner-up.
In the previous elections, Arauz, who is now Gonzalez’s vice-president, won the highest number of votes in the first round, and then lost in the run-off, because the entire political spectrum, right, centre-right and even centre-left, united against him.
This is the “risk factor” for correísmo (Correa’s supporters), said sociologist Decio Machado, while political scientist Grace Jiménez agreed on the programme Hablando Claro (Straight Talk), broadcast on social networks, that the most complicated thing for the CR is to triumph in an eventual second round for the reasons mentioned above and because they have a candidate who is little known.
They will have to give citizens certainty and grounded proposals to convince the electorate to vote for her, although she is not Correa, the expert pointed out.
For this reason, González emphasises in every interview or statement that the CR has already given the country better days and knows how to do it again.
The authorities elected on 20 August will carry out presidential and legislative functions until May 2025. In the event of a run-off election, it would be held on 15 October. PL
(Translated by Cristina Popa – Email: gcpopa83@gmail.com) – Photos: Pixabay
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