Hard facts about hard Brexit

Brexit is the disaster which won’t go away, and, like it or loathe it, the next General Election will be fought on the fallout of Brexit, as outlined in my “Brexit iceberg”.

Peter Cook*

Theresa May knew it. Gina Miller knew it. Michel Barnier knew it. There never was such a thing as a soft Brexit. We are now inheriting the ‘benefits’ of a hard Brexit though Brexit’s delinquent and dysfunctional offspring…

… the cost of living crisis, a return to climate vandalism, a fire sale to other trading blocs, the sale of the century (NHS), skill shortages, recession and depression, breaking international law on human rights, pay freezes, strikes, Brexit red tape, travel, residence and work restrictions, the slow fragmentation of Brexit Britain into 4 + nations, demonisation of ‘forins’ and a retreat on our science and technology base, to name but a few of the effects.

And to quote The Carpenters, “We’ve only just begun”. Biz Catalyst 360 and UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) offer glimpses of what’s to come in the socio-economic, political, legal, technological and environmental suicide formerly known as Brexit.

Hard facts about hard Brexit

The upward curve towards the rejection of Brexit by the vast majority of people will be asymptotic, up to perhaps a residual hardcore of racists and people clutching Brexit unicorns (85% ++ insert your own number?), but it is climbing rapidly.

There will be a huge social desirability to be on the ‘winning side’ once Brexiteers realise that they are no longer a majority.

I find that leave voters often move in herds which is why a study of anthropology and tribes is helpful in terms of changing minds on Brexit. I had an interesting chat about ‘in and out’ groups with a teacher of psychology called Elvis on this recently.

This is why I always target the leaders of social groupings in cafes and pubs for Brexorcism purposes.

Once we reach a 2/3 majority rejection of Brexit, MPs will naturally become twitchy about their seats and their silence on Brexit. We have witnessed a coalition of silence by the Conservatives and Labour on the subject, in an attempt to erase the word Brexit from public discourse.

This explains the bizarre behaviour of a pub barmaid the other evening when one of her customers brought the word up after reading the hoarding on my bicycle !!

See my article The last remaining Brexiteers for more on recent attempts to silence me and my work.

Brexit is the disaster which won’t go away, and, like it or loathe it, the next General Election will be fought on the fallout of Brexit, as outlined in my “Brexit iceberg”.

All of the symptoms / effects at the top of the iceberg have their major roots in Brexit. To a lesser extent, some of these issues are impacted by Covid-19 and Russia but the major contribution comes from Brexit in most cases. As a result, the resilience of UK plc is much lower than other countries who have suffered from the pandemic and the impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine. This is not a one-off hit. The effects of Brexit are long ranging and deep.

Brutal youth

Even though Brexit has failed, we must work hard to address what I call ‘learned helplessness’ – the belief that there is nothing we can do about Brexit. We can and we must.

*Peter Cook leads Reboot Britain / Rage against the Brexit Machine.  Author of three books on Brexit, six albums of protest songs, inspirational anthems and 400 films. He organises collaborative events online and grassroots activism “to educate people that Brexit has failed and that we can and must rejoin the EU as a priority”.