As Syria faces a transformative period following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, the nation’s future remains uncertain. This moment marks the potential for a comprehensive revolution to reshape governance and society.
Rola Zamzameh*
The complexities of power vacuums, international influences, and socio-political challenges make the path forward intricate. There are 10 critical areas shaping Syria’s trajectory:
Power vacuum and political transition
Syria currently lacks a unified authority capable of governing effectively. Groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham may attempt to fill this vacuum, but no single faction possesses overwhelming legitimacy or power. Without compromise among political players, prolonged instability looms.
The fate of the Syrian army
The once-dominant Syrian Army, fragmented by defections and conflict, and destruction by Israel in recent days, faces an uncertain future. Questions about its dissolution, restructuring, or integration into a new national framework will significantly influence post-conflict stability.
Peace talks and constitution drafting
UN-mediated peace efforts, including past Geneva and Astana talks, provide a foundation for renewed negotiations. Central to this is drafting a new constitution that balances diverse societal interests while avoiding pitfalls seen in Egypt’s post-revolution experience.
Transitional justice
Decades of human rights abuses under Assad’s regime demand a comprehensive transitional justice mechanism. Implementing this process will be critical for national reconciliation but fraught with challenges and risks of retaliatory violence.
Roles of Iran, Russia, and Turkey
Iran and Russia, once Assad’s staunch allies, face uncertain futures in Syria. While Turkey emerges as a key player supporting opposition groups, its stance against Kurdish autonomy will influence broader regional dynamics.
Jihadist and extremist groups
Groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and remnants of ISIS still pose threats to Syria’s security.
A lack of centralized governance risks turning the country into a haven for extremist factions.
The Kurdish question
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces control significant northeastern territories. Their push for autonomy, supported by the U.S., clashes with Turkish interests, potentially complicating Syria’s political reconstruction.
Western powers and the U.S.
The West, particularly the U.S., is playing a cautious role, except by supporting Israeli invasions of Syrian sovereignty. With Donald Trump set to return to the White House, his isolationist stance raises questions about future American involvement in Syria and its approach to extremist threats.
Refugee crisis and internal displacement
Syria’s war displaced millions, creating one of the world’s largest refugee crises.
Addressing repatriation, ensuring safety, and rebuilding livelihoods will test international commitment to humanitarian aid.
Rebuilding Syria
Decades of war have devastated Syria’s infrastructure, shrinking its economy by 60% since 2011. With estimated reconstruction costs reaching $1 trillion, international support—especially from Gulf States and Western nations—will be essential for recovery.
As these interconnected challenges unfold, Syria’s future hinges on inclusive governance, effective diplomacy, and sustained international cooperation. The nation stands at a crossroads, where decisions made today will define its trajectory for generations.
*Rola Zamzameh: Senior journalist at European Commission and Parliament.
(Photos: Pixabay)
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