An international scene with no clear rules is coming to the fore, marked by hegemons, military interventions and growing global uncertainty. Europe’s weakness, the reconfiguration of power in the hemisphere and Uruguay’s recent decisions lay bare the tensions of an increasingly unpredictable world order.
Orlando Oramas León
Confusing and turbulent times are coming, warns the Uruguayan political analyst Óscar Bottinelli.
He blames the absence of rules other than those the United States imposes. He shared his reflections against the background of the United States’ attack on Venezuela on 3rd January “when certain rules of power that prevailed during the Cold War were left behind”. Then, he says, there was a division of areas of influence which, along with the positions taken by so-called third-way countries, “created a certain balance in the diplomatic game”. In those days, he goes on, it was completely unimaginable that United States warships would capture an oil tanker or merchant ship belonging to the Soviet Union or any of the Warsaw Pact countries.
Bottinelli told Prensa Larina he does not idealise that era, still less the last quarter of a century with the interventions in Iraq and Libya and, further back, the invasions of Grenada and Panama. “Even so, there were certain limits; now ‘the greatest power’ is trying to dominate”, he underlines. He believes this happens when Europe becomes a secondary actor.
“It is notoriously weak and lacks leadership. What is happening with the Mercosur agreement with the European Union proves it. It gives the impression that the EU doesn’t have sufficient backing for what it agrees to be important.”
He cites the example of Greenland and US President Donald Trump’s aspirations to take over the territory, which has Danish sovereignty, perhaps even through the use of force.
It is not correct to say that President Trump took a step back, as some of the European press maintain, comments Bottinelli.
“Trump acted half as a politician, half as a businessman. He played his hand, throwing all his aspirations on the table and in the end he didn’t get Greenland but he did get the military bases, sovereignty over the bases, control of the natural resources and the right to decide who can invest there.”
He warns that at on the surface it seems like “madness” but it is a tactic that works for Trump as it is disconcerting: “he makes threats in so many different directions it is impossible to predict where he will attack next”.
Bottinelli foresees a period of great uncertainty and wonders if what is happening inside the United States, for example in Minneapolis, could lead to a situation like the one at the end of the 1960s and beginning of the 1970s when there was a rejection of the Vietnam war.
He mentions the repression and use of force by the United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) which “is applied with few limits and exacerbates non-conformity to which are added racist killings by local police officers”. He believes this means “there is massive unrest in parts of the United States”.
Bottinelli contrasts Donald Trump’s electoral victory for the presidency with that of the mayor of New York, the Democrat Zohran Mamdani, a muslim immigrant “originally from India ethnically but geographically from Africa”. This is a big change in New York society’s political behaviour, notes Bottinelli who recognises that facts like these leave many question marks over the times to come.
What is clear and diplomacy
What is clear is Washington’s decision to impose the Monroe Doctrine, seeking to bring the western hemisphere under its control, even with threats, believes Líber Seregni, the founding political secretary of Frente Amplio, a progressive political organisation.
He adds that the United States proved this with the deployment of its navy in the Caribbean, imposing a “police domination”, bombardments of civilian shipping with dozens of victims and the capture of oil tankers.
“They are making a significant change and there is no other force to oppose them. What started as threats, on 3rd January the military intervention in Venezuela showed were real”, he concludes.
This is the context in which next March Uruguay will take over the rolling presidency of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (Celac). Prior to that, in January, the Uruguayan state became the chair of the Group of 77 plus China, made up of over a hundred countries.
For Bottinelli, the first surprise was President Yamandú Orsi’s government’s decision not to join the BRICS’ New Development Bank despite the group’s goodwill and an express and personal invitation from the entity’s chair, Dilma Rousseff, to the Uruguayan president.
The fact is noteworthy: No to the BRICS countries, no to the BRICS’ bank, he remarks.
He says this is due to the stance of the current economy minister, Gabriel Oddone, who in February 2025 said that the BRICS’ New Development Bank doesn’t bring anything to the country, given that Uruguay’s investment comes from the major Western capitals with the United States as an axis.
It is through this lens that the official Uruguayan reaction to the military intervention against Venezuela and the kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro and the Member of Parliament Cilia Flores, which left dozens of victims dead, can be read.
The political analyst makes a distinction between Uruguay’s statements on the subject: the foreign ministry’s communiqué; the joint declaration signed with Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Spain and Chile; Orsi’s own comments and two speeches by the ambassador to the Organisation of American States.
“Clearly where Uruguay was most critical of the United States about the attack on Venezuela was the joint declaration with those countries. But then all the other statements went in the other direction, much closer to Washington”, he points out.
That is why the analyst compared other times when Uruguayan foreign policy steered a middle course, separated from the interference of the so-called Group of Lima, proponent of punishing Venezuela and in the United States’ orbit.
“In contrast today’s policy is between Uruguay’s middle course position and one that is closer to the United States”, he says.
(Translated by Philip Walker – Email: philipwalkertranslation@gmail.com) – Photos: Pixabay
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