The Republican magnate’s victory has an impact on global geopolitics, all the more so as it happened after one of the most atypical presidential campaigns in the history of the United States. Questions arise for Cuba, especially over whether or not the political landscape could change.
Amelia Duarte
It was an atypical campaign not just because of the change, almost at the eleventh hour, of the Democratic party’s candidate (who was also the sitting president), but because of the phenomenon of violence and the two attacks on Donald Trump.
However, it is not the first time the United States has experienced moments of political agitation in the midst of elections. “Throughout the country’s history there have been other moments of tension and conflict during presidential elections, from Abraham Lincoln’s election in 1860, which preceded the civil war, to the turbulence of the 1968 election in the middle of the Vietnam war and the civil rights movement. I think also of the elections in 2000, for example”.
These are the thoughts of Dalia González Delgado, researcher and lecturer at the Centre for Hemispheric and United States Studies (CEHSEU), who explains that “the relationship between the two countries is deeply complex and has historical roots of a structural nature that do not depend on temporary circumstances”.
The most worrying thing is that this violence is part of a process of crisis the country is living through, structural crisis. And the events we see are expressions of that. “Let’s think, for example, of something still recent, like the assault on the Capitol on 6th January 2021”.
Polarisation in the United States
“Political polarisation is undoubtedly one of the most important factors which explain the atmosphere of conflict in the current presidential campaign, but it is not the only explanation”, she says.
In these cases, it is important to understand both the circumstantial factors and the structural factors that have led to this situation, she adds.
“Political polarisation in the United States has deep roots that we can trace back to at least the 1970s, a stage that in many ways marked an inflection point in the country’s history”, she adds. There are many causes of the phenomenon, ranging from institutional changes to changes in the electorate, gerrymandering, transformations in the parties.
“It is very important to highlight as well that the growth of inequality has been one of the factors that has increased polarisation in United States society.
“Likewise, we have to talk about other phenomena like populism, especially populism of the right, which is not new and in this twenty-first century we can relate it to the effects of the 2007 financial crisis”, she points out.
For example, as unemployment grew, immigrants were blamed for the problems, which also contributed to support for populist leaders on the right who promised to protect United States jobs.
In this case, she underlines, we could mention the rise of the Tea Party in 2009 as a reaction both to the financial crisis and to the election of Barack Obama, the first Afro-American president.
“Also the alt-right movement, known for its controversial viewpoints, particularly emphasises white nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric”, outlines the researcher. These two examples provided fertile ground for the 2016 election of Trump whose campaign was able to capitalise on longstanding fears and prejudices, such as nativism and racism.
The panorama we see in the United States today is part of a structural crisis, related to the system as a whole’s exhaustion of capacity to reproduce, she explains.
“This is shown through economic and political crises, a crisis in the legitimacy of the institutions, and the public’s loss of confidence in the institutions and politicians.
“Crises in all aspects of society’s life and that includes, of course, the electoral process”, she affirms.
Cuba and Trump
The result of the brief battle between Trump and Kamala Harris which ended on 5th November was not irrelevant for Cuba.
It raises questions: “What will be the nature of this change? When will it happen and how fast? This is very difficult to answer right now because it depends on many factors.”
González explains that “the relationship between the two countries is deeply complex and has historical roots of a structural nature that do not depend on temporary circumstances.
“It is the result of the interaction between specific national projects: the building of hegemonic power by the United States, present since the country’s founding, and a sovereign nation project in Cuba, a territory that moreover is in the geopolitical area closest to the North American government”, she says.
The two national projects have been destined for conflict since their formation but that does not mean that the electoral result is irrelevant, nor that relations cannot be better than they are now, she affirms. “In fact, we have had different periods with times of greater or lesser conflict, and history shows that it is possible to have dialogue and cooperation on topics of common interest”.
One should never, González says, lose sight of the fact that there are things that will never change as long as both countries defend their respective nation projects.
(Translated by Philip Walker – Email: philipwalkertranslation@gmail.com) – Photos: Pixabay
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